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Week eleven CFP ranking prediction for the Hawkeyes

The Iowa football team made the CFP committees initial rankings last week, and then fell to Purdue. Where will they stand in tonight’s second ranking?

Last week the Iowa football team debuted in the College Football Playoff committee’s initial ranking at #16 after starting the season 6-2 with losses to Penn State and Wisconsin. Where will the Hawkeyes sit in tonight’s second released ranking after losing to the Purdue Boilermakers Saturday?

First let’s be clear that while we will be using the AP Poll and Coaches Poll as references, these polls really don’t mean much in the grand scheme of things. They are just a reference point for what the College Football Playoff committee will do.

It’s a good thing they don’t matter too, because the Iowa football program finds themselves out of the top-25 for the first time in a few weeks. In the AP Poll, the Hawks fell from #19 to out of the poll and based on the teams receiving votes (but not enough to make the AP Poll), Iowa would be slated around #32 if it went further than 25 teams.

The Coaches Poll was relatively kinder to the Hawks. After being ranked #18 last week, Iowa also fell out of the rankings, but based on the other teams receiving votes (but not enough to make the top-25), the Hawkeyes would be sitting around #28.

What’s most interesting (and certainly something to factor in here), is that Iowa State is in the top-25 of both polls despite their early season loss to Iowa. Similarly, the Cyclones surprisingly made the initial released ranking from the College Football Playoff committee becoming the only three-loss team on the list. The CFP committee does factor in head-to-head wins/losses though much better than the recency biased AP and Coaches Poll.

Taking a look at last week’s inaugural ranking, there are a few teams worth noting after this weekend’s games.

  • #11 Florida fell to 6-3 with a loss to unranked Missouri 38-17
  • #12 UCF needed the entire game to put away unranked Temple. Considering UCF’s schedule, a tough win doesn’t look good.
  • #14 Penn State got crushed by Michigan falling to 6-3.
  • #15 Utah fell 38-20 to a 5-4 Arizona State team. They are now 6-3.
  • #17 Texas is now 6-3 after narrowly losing to West Virginia on a last-minute touchdown drive.
  • #20 Texas A&M is now 5-4 after a close loss to Auburn.
  • #25 Virginia fell to Pittsburgh 23-13 and they are also sitting at 6-3.

These losses, especially Texas, Texas A&M, and Virginia clear some spots for the Iowa football team to fall too after their loss as well.

While ultimately the only thing that matters is the final rankings, it’s important to look good in the eyes of the committee and it will be interesting to see where the Iowa football team is placed after a loss to a decent Purdue Boilermakers team.

My guess is they will be one of the last teams in sitting at #23-25.

Regardless, we will find out tonight at 8 PM CST, and you better believe that we will have a reaction post shortly thereafter.

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